- Location
- Chichester
Monday Market Briefing - 16th January 2023
Since the New Year there has been plenty of interest around from both sides of the market but sellers are seemingly reluctant to accept the lower values now on offer particularly for feed grains. On quality markets the large premiums still available make things a little more palatable. Last week saw another USDA report which did not contain the bearish data some feared although there was a first indication of increased US wheat plantings for 23 Crop. At home the AHDB confirmed usage of wheat in animal feed hit a six year low in July-Nov22, not really surprising as this period coincided with the high point of the wheat rally, but it does confirm what we see daily in that domestic demand is more sporadic than we are used to.
There have been some signs last week that the global recession might not be as deep or as prolonged as we have been told which could help buyer confidence if the news stays positive. Generally though, it’s probably the weight of Black Sea exports, in the race to catch up lost time, that weighs most heavily on markets right now. Arranging these shipments is not without issues currently, but the safe corridor deal was extended to mid-March and this could prove to be a date that preoccupies the markets as we get nearer to it. By then, both sides in the conflict will presumably be ready to launch whatever spring offensives they have planned, if they haven’t already done so, and who can guess what the consequences of that might be ? The problem for the UK is, if we sit around waiting for that potential market event, we won’t then have the time left to shift on our old crop surpluses in the remaining months of the season.
Concentrate on tidying up the old crop in coming weeks and wait for new crop to be shaped by events looks like best advice today.
Have a good week.